Un-nerving Update to Recent Climate Report
Don Beck | 02.12.2007 17:13 | Climate Chaos | Ecology
Scientists involved in writing the report said recently that it is already out of date and that its predictions are too conservative.
Here are some very important scientific findings (not modeling) from this past year that were not allowed into the report because of a deadline of a year and a half ago for the input of scientific data.
This wasn't a dastardly conspiracy, just a rather stupid rule that proved to be quite tragic in light of the alarming scientific data of this past year.
Moreover, the political contingent showed up as each report was written by the scientific community, and the political hacks softened up the language every where they could, so the report is not even close to what it should be.
The sea level rise forecast is the most notably skewed. Dr. James Hansen says a more accurate forecast for 2100 is more than 5 meters without measures to reduce CO2 substantially.(1) He, and many others, have said that the report was written without the very recent knowledge of glacial acceleration feedbacks that have surprised the scientists with the rapidity of the melting and flow, making the report's forecasts much too low.
Consequently, the level of urgency that is understood by policy makers around the world will be out of touch with reality and the chance to slow the warming of the planet disastrously diminished.
[Links to the article that these statements are ripped from are provided below. You will notice that only one of these reports is from a U.S. corporate news service.]
**************
2) Dec. '06 - Globe is Warming Faster Than Scientist's worst predictions. Our worst fears are exceeded by reality.
**************
Oceans
3) Jan. '07 - Earth is Losing its Ability to Absorb CO2?
4) May '07 - ... (the Southern Oceans) are beginning to release the CO2 they have stored.
5) Oct. '07 - ...the ability of (the Atlantic) ocean to absorb CO2 has dropped by half....
6) Feb. '07 - World's sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate. Sea levels are rising even faster than scientists predicted.
7) May '07 - 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream.
**************
Other Positive Feedbacks
8) Mar. '07 - Tundra Disappearing At Rapid Rate. "It's like it waited until conditions were just right and then it decided to get up and run, not just walk.".....This sets up a "positive feedback," the same process that is associated with the rapidly decaying Arctic ice cap.
9) Aug. '07 - Arctic lakes are beginning to release methane and CO2. A global tragedy of monumental proportions is unfolding at the top of the world...
10) Nov. '07 - The increase in forest fires in the boreal forests have weakened one of the earth's greatest terrestrial sinks of carbon dioxide.
**************
CO2
11) Feb. '07 - Carbon dioxide rate is at highest level for 650,000 years.
12) Oct. '07 - New CO2 evidence means climate change predictions are 'too optimistic' Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are increasing much faster.... than scientists have predicted....
**************
Glaciers
13) Jan. '07 - Glaciers (water supply) Melting 6 X Faster Than '80s
14) Sept. '07 - Glaciers are moving much faster towards the sea because of previously unknown factors. (Greenland ice is) advancing toward the sea at seven miles per year, compared with three and a half miles before.
**************
Polar Ice
15) Jan. '07 - The Pace of Arctic Global Warming is Staggering. "....the change "is happening so extremely fast, much much faster than we have seen in thousands and thousands of years. "Climate change in the Arctic is not coming. It is here,"
16) Mar. '07 - ... the Antarctic Peninsula is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, and glaciers are in massive retreat.
17) April '07 - .... the (sea ice) that we've observed is actually declining much faster than the models have shown.
18) Sept. '07 - 'Remarkable' Drop in Arctic Sea Ice Raises Questions
**************
19) Jan. '07 - Reduce CO2 in Ten Years, or Climate Will be Out-of-Control. 'If we fail to act, we will end up with a different planet'
20) July '07 - No Link Between Cosmic Rays and Global Warming
*****************************************************
Recent Temperature Records -
*****************************************************
21) 2005 was the Warmest year on Record.
22) 2006 was the 5th Warmest on Record.
23) 2006 was the 2nd Warmest Year on Record for the U.S.
24) '06 Dec. the Warmest December on Record
25) January '07......................Warmest on Record
26) April '07...........................Third Warmest on Record.
27) January-May period.............................tied with 1998 as the Warmest on Record
*************
11 of the past 12 years are the warmest on record, and '07 is clearly on track to make it 12 in a row.
Skeptics say that this is normal 'variability' of the climate. But the more you read of the data of late, you see that it is only varying in the wrong direction.......... everywhere they look.
Don Beck
**************
**************
References:
1)
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_2.pdf
2) http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2110651.ece
3) http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/jan/19/frontpagenews.climatechange
4) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/technology/technology.html?in_article_id=455735&in_page_id=1965
This link is not functioning. To retrieve this article you must enter "Ocean 'less effective at absorbing climate change gases'"
into google's search engine.
5) http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7008907686
6) http://www.environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2004718,00.html
7) http://nyc.indymedia.org/en/2007/05/86525.html
8) http://www.mbeconetwork.org/newsitem.php?news=2
9) http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/08/13/008.html
10) http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article3115537.ece
11) http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2211568.ece
This link is not functioning. To retrieve this article you must enter "Carbon dioxide rate
is at highest level for 650,000 years" into the Independent's search engine.
12) http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article2719627.ece
13) http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Melting_Glaciers_Show_Climate_Change_Speeding_Up_999.html
14) http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ji-VBJ-GzgzCFcdspzNBU5kKAB3Q
15) http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Arctic_Region_As_Global_Warming_Barometer_999.html
16) http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSSYD27511820070326
17) http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2007/04/04/3916309-cp.html
18) http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/arctic_minimum.html
19) http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2116874.ece
20) http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2007/07/no-link-between.html
21) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
22) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/ann/global.html
23) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/ann/ann06.html
24) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/dec/global.html#Temp
25) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/jan/jan07.html#Global
26) http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases2007/may07/noaa07-029.html
27) http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases2007/jun07/noaa07-033.html
Here are some very important scientific findings (not modeling) from this past year that were not allowed into the report because of a deadline of a year and a half ago for the input of scientific data.
This wasn't a dastardly conspiracy, just a rather stupid rule that proved to be quite tragic in light of the alarming scientific data of this past year.
Moreover, the political contingent showed up as each report was written by the scientific community, and the political hacks softened up the language every where they could, so the report is not even close to what it should be.
The sea level rise forecast is the most notably skewed. Dr. James Hansen says a more accurate forecast for 2100 is more than 5 meters without measures to reduce CO2 substantially.(1) He, and many others, have said that the report was written without the very recent knowledge of glacial acceleration feedbacks that have surprised the scientists with the rapidity of the melting and flow, making the report's forecasts much too low.
Consequently, the level of urgency that is understood by policy makers around the world will be out of touch with reality and the chance to slow the warming of the planet disastrously diminished.
[Links to the article that these statements are ripped from are provided below. You will notice that only one of these reports is from a U.S. corporate news service.]
**************
2) Dec. '06 - Globe is Warming Faster Than Scientist's worst predictions. Our worst fears are exceeded by reality.
**************
Oceans
3) Jan. '07 - Earth is Losing its Ability to Absorb CO2?
4) May '07 - ... (the Southern Oceans) are beginning to release the CO2 they have stored.
5) Oct. '07 - ...the ability of (the Atlantic) ocean to absorb CO2 has dropped by half....
6) Feb. '07 - World's sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate. Sea levels are rising even faster than scientists predicted.
7) May '07 - 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream.
**************
Other Positive Feedbacks
8) Mar. '07 - Tundra Disappearing At Rapid Rate. "It's like it waited until conditions were just right and then it decided to get up and run, not just walk.".....This sets up a "positive feedback," the same process that is associated with the rapidly decaying Arctic ice cap.
9) Aug. '07 - Arctic lakes are beginning to release methane and CO2. A global tragedy of monumental proportions is unfolding at the top of the world...
10) Nov. '07 - The increase in forest fires in the boreal forests have weakened one of the earth's greatest terrestrial sinks of carbon dioxide.
**************
CO2
11) Feb. '07 - Carbon dioxide rate is at highest level for 650,000 years.
12) Oct. '07 - New CO2 evidence means climate change predictions are 'too optimistic' Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are increasing much faster.... than scientists have predicted....
**************
Glaciers
13) Jan. '07 - Glaciers (water supply) Melting 6 X Faster Than '80s
14) Sept. '07 - Glaciers are moving much faster towards the sea because of previously unknown factors. (Greenland ice is) advancing toward the sea at seven miles per year, compared with three and a half miles before.
**************
Polar Ice
15) Jan. '07 - The Pace of Arctic Global Warming is Staggering. "....the change "is happening so extremely fast, much much faster than we have seen in thousands and thousands of years. "Climate change in the Arctic is not coming. It is here,"
16) Mar. '07 - ... the Antarctic Peninsula is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, and glaciers are in massive retreat.
17) April '07 - .... the (sea ice) that we've observed is actually declining much faster than the models have shown.
18) Sept. '07 - 'Remarkable' Drop in Arctic Sea Ice Raises Questions
**************
19) Jan. '07 - Reduce CO2 in Ten Years, or Climate Will be Out-of-Control. 'If we fail to act, we will end up with a different planet'
20) July '07 - No Link Between Cosmic Rays and Global Warming
*****************************************************
Recent Temperature Records -
*****************************************************
21) 2005 was the Warmest year on Record.
22) 2006 was the 5th Warmest on Record.
23) 2006 was the 2nd Warmest Year on Record for the U.S.
24) '06 Dec. the Warmest December on Record
25) January '07......................Warmest on Record
26) April '07...........................Third Warmest on Record.
27) January-May period.............................tied with 1998 as the Warmest on Record
*************
11 of the past 12 years are the warmest on record, and '07 is clearly on track to make it 12 in a row.
Skeptics say that this is normal 'variability' of the climate. But the more you read of the data of late, you see that it is only varying in the wrong direction.......... everywhere they look.
Don Beck
**************
**************
References:
1)
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_2.pdf 2)
http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2110651.ece 3)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/jan/19/frontpagenews.climatechange 4)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/technology/technology.html?in_article_id=455735&in_page_id=1965 This link is not functioning. To retrieve this article you must enter "Ocean 'less effective at absorbing climate change gases'"
into google's search engine.
5)
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7008907686 6)
http://www.environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2004718,00.html 7)
http://nyc.indymedia.org/en/2007/05/86525.html 8)
http://www.mbeconetwork.org/newsitem.php?news=2 9)
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/08/13/008.html 10)
http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article3115537.ece 11)
http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2211568.ece This link is not functioning. To retrieve this article you must enter "Carbon dioxide rate
is at highest level for 650,000 years" into the Independent's search engine.
12)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article2719627.ece 13)
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Melting_Glaciers_Show_Climate_Change_Speeding_Up_999.html 14)
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ji-VBJ-GzgzCFcdspzNBU5kKAB3Q 15)
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Arctic_Region_As_Global_Warming_Barometer_999.html 16)
http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSSYD27511820070326 17)
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2007/04/04/3916309-cp.html 18)
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/arctic_minimum.html 19)
http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2116874.ece 20)
http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2007/07/no-link-between.html 21)
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ 22)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/ann/global.html 23)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/ann/ann06.html 24)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/dec/global.html#Temp 25)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/jan/jan07.html#Global 26)
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases2007/may07/noaa07-029.html 27)
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases2007/jun07/noaa07-033.html
Don Beck
Additions
How can we avoid dangerous human-made climate change
03.12.2007 14:51
Dr. James Hansen -- THE THREAT TO THE PLANET
Dr. James Hansen is one of the few scientists who have consistently warned that the impact that humans have on the climate is bringing about changes that are faster than we ever believed and may be irreversible if action is not taken now. Hansen is Director of the NASA Institute for Space Studies in New York City, and he teaches at Columbia. Since the late 1970s, he has worked on studies of the Earth's climate. He has run afoul of government censors since the 1980s. Repeatedly his testimony before Congress was suppressed or re-written.
Hansen says that the unprecedented and rising amounts of greenhouse gases added each year AND the speed at which we are altering the energy balance of the earth are completely out of the range of proven earth history of hundreds of thousands of years. Hansen fears that we may soon be reaching feedback mechanism or tipping points such as the melting of the ice sheets that has already begun on Greenland and West Antarctica.
In part one of this program Hansen gives a fascinating account of the earth's climate history, in part two he talks about solutions. Dr. Hansen's work - including the slide projections for this talk, can be found at http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1
For a PODCAST of Part ONE http://www.tucradio.org/A305PODhansenone.mp3
For a PODCAST of Part TWO http://www.tucradio.org/A305PODhansentwo.mp3
For a PODCAST of the questions and answer session http://www.tucradio.org/A305HansenQ_A.mp3
Dr. James Hansen is one of the few scientists who have consistently warned that the impact that humans have on the climate is bringing about changes that are faster than we ever believed and may be irreversible if action is not taken now. Hansen is Director of the NASA Institute for Space Studies in New York City, and he teaches at Columbia. Since the late 1970s, he has worked on studies of the Earth's climate. He has run afoul of government censors since the 1980s. Repeatedly his testimony before Congress was suppressed or re-written.
Hansen says that the unprecedented and rising amounts of greenhouse gases added each year AND the speed at which we are altering the energy balance of the earth are completely out of the range of proven earth history of hundreds of thousands of years. Hansen fears that we may soon be reaching feedback mechanism or tipping points such as the melting of the ice sheets that has already begun on Greenland and West Antarctica.
In part one of this program Hansen gives a fascinating account of the earth's climate history, in part two he talks about solutions. Dr. Hansen's work - including the slide projections for this talk, can be found at
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1 For a PODCAST of Part ONE
http://www.tucradio.org/A305PODhansenone.mp3 For a PODCAST of Part TWO
http://www.tucradio.org/A305PODhansentwo.mp3 For a PODCAST of the questions and answer session
http://www.tucradio.org/A305HansenQ_A.mp3
TUC Radio
Homepage:
http://tucradio.org/
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