Deteriorated Situations: Haiti, Nigeria

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Haiti, up to 200,000 people are feared dead and several hundred thousand displaced after a devastating earthquake struck the country on 12 January. The earthquake inflicted major damage on infrastructure in and around Port-au-Prince and has reversed much of the recent progress in strengthening the country's institutions. International troops were deployed, including some 13,500 from the U.S. and additional UN forces, although the security situation appeared to stabilise towards the end of the month.

Nigeria, The situation also deteriorated when a fresh outbreak of violence between Muslims and Christians in the northern city of Jos claimed at least 320 lives, possibly many more, and sparked fears of reprisal attacks. In the fragile Niger Delta, dominant militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta announced an end to their three-month ceasefire amidst continuing delays in promised reintegration and regional development.

Events in Nigeria come in the context of a deepening political crisis at the centre, grounded in President Yar'Adua's continued hospitalisation abroad, accusations of a rising governance deficit, and fierce debate over his fitness to remain in office. CrisisWatch identifies risks of a serious deterioration in security in the Niger Delta region over February.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Armenia/Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Eritrea/Ethiopia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan), Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Niger, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations: Guinea, Nepal
Prospects for an end to extended military rule in Guinea improved, after talks between the country's junta leaders and regional mediator Blaise Campaoré resulted in a breakthrough deal on a transition roadmap. The "Ouagadougou Agreement", approved on 15 January, provides for the creation of a unity government and elections within six months in which junta members are barred from standing. A new civilian prime minister, opposition figure Jean-Marie Doré, was sworn in in accordance with the deal on 26 January. CrisisWatch identifies opportunities for a further easing of tensions over coming weeks

Hopes for sustainable peace in Nepal increased as Maoists called off threatened nation-wide strikes, after the government announcement that it would set up a high-level panel to "speed up" the peace process. The panel, to include Nepali Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala and Maoist leader "Prachanda", would also address issues surrounding the drafting of the country's new constitution.

February 2010 Outlook

Conflict Risk Alert: Nigeria

Conflict Resolution Opportunity: Guinea

CrisisWatch N°78 - 1 February 2010
 http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6510&l=1

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