As British Prime Minister Tony Blair addressed the House of Commons in London on November 14, selected military units all over the UK were making their initial preparations to fly to Afghanistan to participate in a massive effort to "stabilise" the situation so that a fledging government may be set up.

Senior military sources have already indicated that the prime units to go will be from the Parachute Regiment, the Air-mobile Brigade, the Royal Marines (with over 400 in the area already) and specialised units from the Special Air Service Regiment (SAS). Their first responsibility will be to provide security and stability in the main area around Kabul, supervise, possibly with assistance from the Royal Air Force (RAF) and RAF Regiment, the reopening of Kabul airport and provide advice and protection for the massive aid effort about to be put into train.

The second "wave" of personnel will contain units such as the Royal Engineers - experienced in mine clearance, bridge building and the restoration and development of such essential infrastructures as water, power and sewage; the Royal Logistics Corps - experienced in such tasks as the provision of transport of supplies, fighting material, portable accommodation for troops in the line, and all of the many other aspects of military life in the field that require professional tasking; and the Military Police - who will provide infield security and protection for visiting dignitaries and operational headquarters.

Add to this, a number of specialised units dealing with explosives ordinance disposal (bomb and mine disposal) and also interrogation of prisoners of war and intelligence matters.

The one big plus for the British Forces is the vast amount of practical experience that all of the units have gained through years of similar work in various areas of the former Yugoslavia, which, coupled with a determination for follow orders, backed by sheer common sense, and the ethos of fair play, all combine to give a proven, winning formula.

On several occasions over the past few years, I have discussed such operations with serving personnel, and they have no delusions about the complexity or challenge involved in such situations, which coupled with the sheer fanaticism of the Taliban, Al Qaeda and their leaders will lead to a highly tense and fragile situation.

Despite continuing reports of the collapse of the Taliban, (many in instances where local chiefs have decided to be pragmatic and survive) the situation remains, as they say in military circles, "fluid", and there is no doubt that Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar would have moved to any of dozens of tunnel complexes around the South and its capital Kandahar. Many of the complexes of caves are well-developed and sophisticated, with the ability to communicate with adherents of Al Qaeda around the globe, where, a "Gotterdammerung" situation could result in the order for suicide attacks to be unleashed around the world.

In an ironic twist of fate, many of the more dangerous and fanatical fighters who will probably fight to the death are not native Taliban, but Pakistani and Arab volunteers who have decided to travel to the area and join the fight. Reports of the massacre of many of their compatriots, who tried to surrender and failed, fatally, effectively rules out any possibility of their surrender, and the end could be bloody and costly.

One of the imponderables at this moment in time is how the coalition sees the development of a truly representative government being established in Kabul. Several potential leaders have either been assassinated or executed in the past months, and they were all men of character and experience that the country could ill afford to lose, especially at such a pivotal point in history.

Tribal enmities and anger have, for years, guaranteed that internecine strife has become a way of life, and many "Afghan hands" feel that to get all of the diverse factions to agree on anything is a task akin to "squaring the circle"!

Another imponderable is how quickly the coalition and the United Nations can reach agreement on how the liberated part of Afghanistan can be supported, stabilised and organised to face the oncoming winter.

December, January, February and March in the high-tops of the mountains can be extremely hazardous, and in many areas, the temperature rarely rises above freezing even during daylight hours. Given the emaciated state and poor physical condition of tens of thousands of refugees, this makes the urgency of getting supplies and organisation to the camps high priority. The fact that the coalition has seized a number of airfields would unlock the barrier to fast and effective aid supply.

Despite rumours of tribal emissaries making their way to Kandahar, to allegedly negotiate some form of formula for a peaceful settlement, many senior military sources feel that whereas some of the Taliban may transfer their allegiance to the Northern Alliance or a national government, many, particularly the volunteers from abroad, will not, and that the final days of the conflict (whenever it eventually happens) will be vicious and bloody.