The truth about the new imperialistic war of USA
The take-over of Kabul is not the end of this reactionary conflict!
Part 3

The take-over of Kabul and a series of other big cities and regions is certainly a big success for the North Alliance. Before the American attack in Afghanistan, North Alliance seemed to be too weak to confront the Taleban regime. It was only after the devastating bombings that it managed to reverse the situation and participate in the political-military game of the post-Taleban period with a big potential. However, after the recent runaway developments, the situation in Afghanistan becomes at the same time more complicated and complex. All the political problems and contradictions become more intense, since it seems that almost all the factors did not expect such a fast evolution of the situation. It is obvious that the political problem of Afghanistan cannot be solved after these developments. Instead, it becomes more complex and explosive.
Pakistan, having a traditional influence on Afghanistan, especially through Pastun tribe, has been always concerned for such a development. It is obvious that Pakistan leadership is in a difficult position, especially after the entrance of North Alliance in Kabul and the upgrade of its role.
Iran, the other neighbor, still has the least possibilities to affect developments in Afghanistan. The policy of Teheran is to try and balance between the influence and intervention of the other external powers, which determine the evolution in Afghanistan, aiming at the minimization of risk for Iran.
Russia is coming back more powerful in the post-Taleban developments. It preserves its strong relations with Rabani’s party, which is the most powerful component in the framework of North Alliance, and which has gained more possibilities of influence and intervention after it achieved the occupation of Kabul. In this way, the traditional opposition between Russian policy and Pakistan becomes intensified.
Finally, USA has to confront new difficulties and will have to face the complex situation in Afghanistan without any ready alternative solution. Anyway, USA, Russia and Pakistan will be the main poles that will determine the developments.
All scenarios are possible. Although it seems that the Taleban have lost much of their strength, it is not impossible that they take the role of the armed opposition in the future. Despite what is said, the future prospects for the people of Afghanistan are not pleasant or peaceful. The new situation cannot easily lead to stability. The most probable scenario is the resumption of a new round of civil war either between the Pastun tribe and North Alliance or even among parts of North Alliance for their share in power and governance. This scenario gets even more probable by the well-known fact that these contradictions in Afghanistan are affected and intensified by the reactionary regimes of the neighboring countries. The so-called 6+2 group (Pakistan, Iran, India, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and USA–Russia), which comes back on scene, is the same group that since 1992 has not managed to come to an agreement despite the continuous conversations and negotiations. The reason is that each side has its own interests and pursuits. The connecting factor, the presence of the Taleban in Kabul, is absent now; therefore it is getting more probable that their conflict is intensified.
All these events have nothing to do with the real interests of the people of Afghanistan - no real improvement should be expected concerning the rights and interests of farmers and laborers of this country, of the young people and women. The members of the so-called North-Alliance, the former Mujahedin, were the ones that initiated the measures of women’s oppression and they actually represent the interests of feudalism and bureaucracy. One should not seriously expect democracy and freedom to arrive now for the people of Afghanistan.
For their own liberation, the people of Afghanistan should develop a movement against all reactionary powers! It should be a movement that will radically solve all the contradictions that torture the society of Afghanistan and will change its semi-feudal and semi-colonial system; a movement against the imperialistic invasion and intervention of foreign powers in our country.

Zaher Athari