Israel
Weapons of Mass Destruction Capabilities and Programs1
Nuclear2 · Sophisticated nuclear weapons program with an estimated 100-200 weapons, which can be delivered by ballistic missiles or aircraft. · Nuclear arsenal may include thermonuclear weapons. · 150MW heavy water reactor and plutonium reprocessing facility at Dimona, which are not under IAEA safeguards. · IRR-1 5MW research reactor at Soreq, under IAEA safeguards. · Not a signatory of the NPT; signed the CTBT on 9/25/96.
Chemical3 · Active weapons program, but not believed to have deployed chemical warheads on ballistic missiles. · Production capability for mustard and nerve agents. · Signed the CWC on 1/13/93, currently debating its ratification.
Biological4 · Production capability and extensive research reportedly conducted at the Biological Research Institute in Ness Ziona. · No publicly confirmed evidence of production. · Not a signatory of the BTWC.
Ballistic missiles5 · Approximately 50 Jericho-2 missiles with 1,500km range and 1,000kg payload, nuclear warheads may be stored in close proximity. · Approximately 50 Jericho-1 missiles with 500km range and 500kg payload. · MGM-52 Lance missiles with 130km range and 450kg payload.. · Shavit space launch vehicle (SLV) with 4,500km range and 150kg to 250kg payload. · Unconfirmed reports of Jericho-3 program under development using Shavit technologies, with a range up to 4,800km and 1000kg payload. · Developing Next (Shavit upgrade) SLV with unknown range and 300-500kg payload.
Cruise missiles6 · Harpy lethal unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with 500km range and unknown payload. · Delilah/STAR-1 UAV with 400km range and 50kg payload. · Gabriel-4 anti-ship cruise missile with 200km range and 500kg payload. · Harpoon anti-ship cruise missile with 120km range and 220kg payload.
Other delivery systems7 · Fighter and ground-attack aircraft incllude: 2 F-15I, 6 F-15D, 18 F-15C, 2 F-15B, 36 F-15A, 54 F-16D, 76 F-16C, 8 F-16B, 67 F-16A, 50 F-4E-2000, 25 F-4E, 20 Kfir C7, and 50 A-4N. · Ground systems include artillery and rocket launchers. Also, Popeye-3 land-attack air-launched missile with 350km range and 360kg payload, and Popeye-1 land-attack air-launched missile with 100km range and 395kg payload.
Sources:
1. This chart summarizes data available from public sources. Precise assessment of a state's capabilities is difficult because most weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs remain secret and cannot be verified independently.
2. Most public estimates range between 100-200 weapons (e.g., Amy Dockser Marcus, "Growing Dangers: U.S. Drive to Curb Doomsday Weapons In Mideast Is Faltering," Wall Street Journal, 9/6/96, p. A1), but one analyst concludes that "the Israeli nuclear arsenal contains as many as 400 deliverable nuclear and thermonuclear weapons." Harold Hough, "Could Israel's Nuclear Assets Survive A First Strike?" Jane's Intelligence Review, 9/97, p. 410. Israel's nuclear capability is by most accounts quite sophisticated, and may include "intercontinental-range, fractional-orbit-delivered thermonuclear weapons; thermonuclear or boosted nuclear-armed, two-stage, solid-fuel, intermediate-range ballistic missiles with a range of 3,000km; older, less accurate, nuclear-armed, theatre-range, solid-fuel ballistic missiles; air-deliverable, variable-yield, boosted nuclear bombs; artillery-delivered, enhanced-radiation, tactical weapons; and small nuclear demolition charges." Kenneth S. Brower, "A Propensity For Conflict: Potential Scenarios And Outcomes Of War In The Middle East," Jane's Intelligence Review Special Report No. 14, p. 15. See also: Anthony H. Cordesman, "Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East: National Efforts, War Fighting Capabilities, Weapons Lethality, Terrorism, and Arms Control Implications" (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2/98), p. 19. "Nuclear Forces Guide," Federation of American Scientists, 10/10/97, [Online]  http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/facility/index.html. International Atomic Energy Agency, "Situation on 31 December 1996 with respect to the conclusion of safeguards agreements between the Agency and non-nuclear-weapon States in connection with the NPT," [Online]  http://www.iaea.or.at/worldatom/program/safeguards/96tables/safenpt.html. Nuclear Engineering International, 1998 World Nuclear Industry Handbook (Essex, UK: Wilmington Publishing Ltd, 1998), p. 114.
3. Dana Priest, "In U.S. Weapons Crusade, Allies Get Scant Mention," Washington Post, 4/14/98, p. 1. Cordesman p. 18-19. Steve Rodan, "Bitter Choices: Israel's Chemical Dilemma," Jerusalem Post, 8/18/97, [Online]  http://www.jpost.co.il. David Makovsky, "Israel Must Ratify Chemical Treaty," Ha'aretz, 1/8/98, [Online]  http://www3.haaretz.co.il/eng.
4. Cordesman, p. 19. "Chemical and Biological Weapons Facilities," Federation of American Scientists, 10/10/97, [Online]  http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/facility/cbw.htm. P.R. Kumaraswamy, "Marcus Klingberg and Israel's ‘Biological Option,'" Middle East International, 8/16/96, pp. 21-22. Zafir Rinat, "Nerve Gas Antidote in Works," Ha'aretz, 12/12/97, [Online]  http://www3.haaretz.co.il/eng. Edna Homa Hunt, "Israel's Biological and Chemical Research and Development – Potential Menace at Home and Abroad," Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, 4/98, pp. 84, 93. Liat Collins, "Bio Institute to Come Under Close Inspection," Jerusalem Post, 2/19/97, [Online]  http://www.jpost.co.il. P.R. Kumaraswamy, "Has Israel Kept its BW Options Open?" Jane's Intelligence Review, 3/98, p. 22.
5. "Missile and Space Launch Capabilities of Selected Countries," The Nonproliferation Review, forthcoming 1998. Duncan Lennox, ed., "Country Inventory – In Service," "In-Service Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles," "In Service Short-Range Ballistic Missiles," "Shavit," and "Offensive Weapons - Unclassified Projects, Israel," Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems Issue 24, 5/97. Cordesman, p.18. "Missile Master Table: Finland-Japan," Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, [Online]  http://www.cdiss.org/master2.htm. Directorate of Space Programs, US Air Force Acquisitions, "Shavit," [Online]  http://www.safaq.af.hq.mil/aqs/vehicle/shavit.htm. Pierre Langereux, "Dassault Lifts the Lid on the Jericho Missile Story," Air & Cosmos/Aviation International, no. 1590, 12/6/96, p. 36. Shawn L. Twing, "Israel Seeks US Permission to Launch Rockets from NASA Facility in Virginia," Washington Report On Middle East Affairs, 4-5/97, pp. 29, 85. Tim Furniss, "Satellite Launcher Directory," Flight International, 12/10-16/97, pp. 28-34. Foreign Defense Assistance and Defense Export Organization (SIBAT), Israel's Defense Sales Directory, 1997/98 (Tel Aviv: Ministry of Defense, 1997), p. 84.
6. Lennox. Cordesman, p. 18. CDISS. Lennox, "Offensive Weapons - Unclassified Projects, Israel." SIBAT, pp. 53, 55, 57. Israel possesses all three versions of the US-made Harpoon cruise missile, which are designed for launch from ships (AGM 84A), submarines (RGM 84A), and aircraft (UGM 84A).
7. The Military Balance 1997/98 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1997), pp. 129-130. Arieh O'Sullivan, "New F-15I Warplanes Extend Israel's Reach," The Jerusalem Post [Online]  http://www.jpost.co.il/. Ze'ev Schiff, "F-15Is Are Not The Complete Answer To The Iran Threat," Ha'aretz, 1/20/98, [Online]  http://www3.haaretz.co.il/.
Prepared by Michael Barletta and Erik Jorgensen,
© Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies.