Russian Intelligence Re Iraq Invasion: 29 March
x | 30.03.2003 06:03
Radio intercepts show that in this attack
the Iraqis shot down a British helicopter. Additionally, two tanks and one APCs were
destroyed by landmines. At least 2 [British] servicemen were killed, around 20 were
wounded and 15 were captured by the Iraqis.
the Iraqis shot down a British helicopter. Additionally, two tanks and one APCs were
destroyed by landmines. At least 2 [British] servicemen were killed, around 20 were
wounded and 15 were captured by the Iraqis.
The IRAQWAR.RU analytical center was created recently by a group of journalists and military
experts from Russia to provide accurate and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq.
The following is the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military
intelligence (the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU) reports.
March 29, 0924 hr. Moscow
During the past day the situation on the US-Iraqi front remained largely unchanged. The
US is continuing reinforcing the attack group near Karabela for a thrust toward Baghdad.
By the morning of March 29 up to 20,000 coalition troops were massed in the area of
Karabela. This forces includes up to 200 tanks, 150 artillery systems and more than 250
helicopters. The order for the attack will be given by the coalition commander Gen.
Tommy Franks, who, according to intercepted radio communications, will personally
inspect the troops during the next several hours.
Around 1900hrs yesterday an Apache attack helicopter crashed. Intercepted radio
communications show that the helicopter was heavily damaged in a combat mission. The
helicopter's pilot lost control during landing and the helicopter crashed, causing serious
damage to another helicopter that landed earlier.
The coalition troops have so far failed to take An-Nasiriya despite of the categorical
orders from the command and more than 800 combat missions by the strike aircraft. All
attempts to break through the Iraqi defense were met by Iraqi counterattacks. After 24
hours of fighting the coalition troops only managed to advance several hundred meters in
two sectors near An-Nasiriya at the cost of 4 destroyed armored personnel carriers, no
less that 3 Marines killed by sniper and mortar fire, 10 wounded and 2 missing in action.
The exact Iraqi losses are being determined.
The Americans have also failed to advance near An-Najaf. Every coalition attack was met
by massive artillery barrages from the Iraqi side. Later during the day the Iraqis mounted
a counterattack throwing the US forces back by 1.5-2 kilometers. No fewer than 10
Marines were killed or wounded. After exchanging fire for six hours both warring sides
remained in the same positions. Iraqi losses in this area are estimated to be 20 killed and
up to 40 wounded.
Near Basra the British troops pushed the Iraqi defense lines on the Fao peninsula but were
unable to capture the entire peninsula. The British advance was a maximum of 4
kilometers from the highway leading to Basra. Radio intercepts show that in this attack
the Iraqis shot down a British helicopter. Additionally, two tanks and one APCs were
destroyed by landmines. At least 2 [British] servicemen were killed, around 20 were
wounded and 15 were captured by the Iraqis.
Exchange of fire continued in the area of the Basra airport. The Iraqis destroyed one
coalition APC wounding two coalition soldiers. The Iraqi losses are difficult to estimate,
but available information suggests that up to 20 Iraqi soldiers and local militia members
might have been killed in the air and artillery strikes.
All attempts by the British troops to break through the Iraqi defenses from the south along
the Al-Arab river have yielded not results. The British command reported that it is unable
to storm Basra with the available forces and will require no less than two additional
brigades and at least five additional artillery battalions. Thus, to avoid further casualties
the British are adopting defensive tactics, while trying to maintain a tight blockade around
Basra and trying to improve their positions with small localized attacks. The British are
also maintaining pressure on the Iraqi positions on the Fao peninsula.
The psychological levels among the city's residents, according to interviews, is far from
critical. The Iraqi military made several public announcements to the residents offering
them a chance to leave the city. However, most of the residents do not want to leave,
fearing the faith of the Palestinian refugees, who, after losing their homes, gained pariah
status in the Arab world. Basra's residents were extremely depressed by the video footage
aired by the coalition command showing Iraqis on the occupied territories fighting for
food and water being distributed by the coalition soldiers. The city's population views this
as a sample of what awaits them if the Americans come...
At the Al-Kuwait airport the unloading of the 4th Mechanized Infantry Division is
continuing and is expected to be completed by the night of April 1. During a night flight
one of the US military transport aircraft requested an emergency landing. What happened
to the plane is still being determined.
Currently the coalition command is deciding how better use the 4th Infantry Division.
The complete deployment [of the division] and preparations for combat are expected to
take at least 10 days. However, the combat units require immediate reinforcements and it
is possible that the [4th Infantry} Division will be joining combat in stages, as the units
become ready. This will mean a considerable reduction of the Division's combat
effectiveness.
A report was obtained, prepared by the Al-Kuwait-based [coalition] Psychological
Operations Tactical Group for the [coalition] Special Ground Forces Command. The
report analyzed the effectiveness of the information and propaganda war. According to
the report, analysis of the television broadcasts, intercepted radio communications,
interrogations of Iraqi POWs show that psychologically the Iraqis are now "more stable
and confident" that they were during the last days before the war. This, according to the
report, is due primarily to the coalition's numerous military failures.
"...Following nervousness and depression [of the Iraqis] during the first days of the war
we can now observe a burst of patriotic and nationalistic feelings. ...There has been a
sharp increase in the number of Iraqi refugees, who left the country before the war,
returning to Iraq. A "cult of war" against the US and the UK is now emerging among the
Iraqis...", the report states. [Reverse translation from Russian]
[Coalition] analysts believe that if this attitude of the Iraqis is not changed within the next
7 days, a "resistance ideology" may take over the Iraqi minds, making the final [coalition]
victory even more difficult. In response to this report the US Army Psychological
Operations command decided to combine all Iraqi POWs into large groups and to
distribute the resulting video footage to the world media. A more active use of the Iraqi
opposition was suggested for propaganda work in the occupied villages. The same
opposition members will be used to create video footage of the "repented" Iraqi POWs
and footage of the local [Iraqi] population "opposing Saddam."
Radio communications intercepted during the last five days suggest that the coalition is
using Israeli airfield for conducting night air strikes against Iraq. Combat aircraft are
taking off regularly from the [Israeli] Hatzerim and the Navatim airbases do not return to
the same bases but fly toward the border with Jordan while maintaining complete radio
silence.
Possibly these are just Israeli Air Force exercises, However, [Russian] radio intercept and
radar units observe increased intensity of radio communications coming from the
Jordanian air force and air defense communication centers during such overflights, as
well as changes in the operating modes of the US Army "Patriot" tracking radars
deployed in Jordan. This indicates the Israeli airbases as used as forward airfield or that
some of the coalition air force units are based there. Normally the IAF F-15I
fighter-bombers and A-4N strike aircraft operate from the Hatzerim airbase and the F-16
fighter-bombers operate from the Nevatim base.
Experts believe that these airbases may be used by the F-117 stealth bombers "officially"
based at the Al-Udaid airbase in Qatar. Using these two locations minimizes the risk to
the F-117s by allowing them to fly along the left bank of the Euphrates (in the direction
of Turkey) and to avoid the dangerous maneuvering over Iraq.
The destruction of the telephone stations in Baghdad did nothing to disrupt the
communications of the Iraqi army. The coalition command acknowledged this fact after
analyzing the dense [Iraqi] radio traffic. Because of that the USAF was ordered to employ
the most powerful available [conventional] munitions against predetermined strategic
targets. This attacks will be carried out immediately before renewing ground advance.
(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-29-03, translated by Venik)
http://www.aeronautics.ru/news/news002/iraqwar_ru_015.htm
experts from Russia to provide accurate and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq.
The following is the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military
intelligence (the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU) reports.
March 29, 0924 hr. Moscow
During the past day the situation on the US-Iraqi front remained largely unchanged. The
US is continuing reinforcing the attack group near Karabela for a thrust toward Baghdad.
By the morning of March 29 up to 20,000 coalition troops were massed in the area of
Karabela. This forces includes up to 200 tanks, 150 artillery systems and more than 250
helicopters. The order for the attack will be given by the coalition commander Gen.
Tommy Franks, who, according to intercepted radio communications, will personally
inspect the troops during the next several hours.
Around 1900hrs yesterday an Apache attack helicopter crashed. Intercepted radio
communications show that the helicopter was heavily damaged in a combat mission. The
helicopter's pilot lost control during landing and the helicopter crashed, causing serious
damage to another helicopter that landed earlier.
The coalition troops have so far failed to take An-Nasiriya despite of the categorical
orders from the command and more than 800 combat missions by the strike aircraft. All
attempts to break through the Iraqi defense were met by Iraqi counterattacks. After 24
hours of fighting the coalition troops only managed to advance several hundred meters in
two sectors near An-Nasiriya at the cost of 4 destroyed armored personnel carriers, no
less that 3 Marines killed by sniper and mortar fire, 10 wounded and 2 missing in action.
The exact Iraqi losses are being determined.
The Americans have also failed to advance near An-Najaf. Every coalition attack was met
by massive artillery barrages from the Iraqi side. Later during the day the Iraqis mounted
a counterattack throwing the US forces back by 1.5-2 kilometers. No fewer than 10
Marines were killed or wounded. After exchanging fire for six hours both warring sides
remained in the same positions. Iraqi losses in this area are estimated to be 20 killed and
up to 40 wounded.
Near Basra the British troops pushed the Iraqi defense lines on the Fao peninsula but were
unable to capture the entire peninsula. The British advance was a maximum of 4
kilometers from the highway leading to Basra. Radio intercepts show that in this attack
the Iraqis shot down a British helicopter. Additionally, two tanks and one APCs were
destroyed by landmines. At least 2 [British] servicemen were killed, around 20 were
wounded and 15 were captured by the Iraqis.
Exchange of fire continued in the area of the Basra airport. The Iraqis destroyed one
coalition APC wounding two coalition soldiers. The Iraqi losses are difficult to estimate,
but available information suggests that up to 20 Iraqi soldiers and local militia members
might have been killed in the air and artillery strikes.
All attempts by the British troops to break through the Iraqi defenses from the south along
the Al-Arab river have yielded not results. The British command reported that it is unable
to storm Basra with the available forces and will require no less than two additional
brigades and at least five additional artillery battalions. Thus, to avoid further casualties
the British are adopting defensive tactics, while trying to maintain a tight blockade around
Basra and trying to improve their positions with small localized attacks. The British are
also maintaining pressure on the Iraqi positions on the Fao peninsula.
The psychological levels among the city's residents, according to interviews, is far from
critical. The Iraqi military made several public announcements to the residents offering
them a chance to leave the city. However, most of the residents do not want to leave,
fearing the faith of the Palestinian refugees, who, after losing their homes, gained pariah
status in the Arab world. Basra's residents were extremely depressed by the video footage
aired by the coalition command showing Iraqis on the occupied territories fighting for
food and water being distributed by the coalition soldiers. The city's population views this
as a sample of what awaits them if the Americans come...
At the Al-Kuwait airport the unloading of the 4th Mechanized Infantry Division is
continuing and is expected to be completed by the night of April 1. During a night flight
one of the US military transport aircraft requested an emergency landing. What happened
to the plane is still being determined.
Currently the coalition command is deciding how better use the 4th Infantry Division.
The complete deployment [of the division] and preparations for combat are expected to
take at least 10 days. However, the combat units require immediate reinforcements and it
is possible that the [4th Infantry} Division will be joining combat in stages, as the units
become ready. This will mean a considerable reduction of the Division's combat
effectiveness.
A report was obtained, prepared by the Al-Kuwait-based [coalition] Psychological
Operations Tactical Group for the [coalition] Special Ground Forces Command. The
report analyzed the effectiveness of the information and propaganda war. According to
the report, analysis of the television broadcasts, intercepted radio communications,
interrogations of Iraqi POWs show that psychologically the Iraqis are now "more stable
and confident" that they were during the last days before the war. This, according to the
report, is due primarily to the coalition's numerous military failures.
"...Following nervousness and depression [of the Iraqis] during the first days of the war
we can now observe a burst of patriotic and nationalistic feelings. ...There has been a
sharp increase in the number of Iraqi refugees, who left the country before the war,
returning to Iraq. A "cult of war" against the US and the UK is now emerging among the
Iraqis...", the report states. [Reverse translation from Russian]
[Coalition] analysts believe that if this attitude of the Iraqis is not changed within the next
7 days, a "resistance ideology" may take over the Iraqi minds, making the final [coalition]
victory even more difficult. In response to this report the US Army Psychological
Operations command decided to combine all Iraqi POWs into large groups and to
distribute the resulting video footage to the world media. A more active use of the Iraqi
opposition was suggested for propaganda work in the occupied villages. The same
opposition members will be used to create video footage of the "repented" Iraqi POWs
and footage of the local [Iraqi] population "opposing Saddam."
Radio communications intercepted during the last five days suggest that the coalition is
using Israeli airfield for conducting night air strikes against Iraq. Combat aircraft are
taking off regularly from the [Israeli] Hatzerim and the Navatim airbases do not return to
the same bases but fly toward the border with Jordan while maintaining complete radio
silence.
Possibly these are just Israeli Air Force exercises, However, [Russian] radio intercept and
radar units observe increased intensity of radio communications coming from the
Jordanian air force and air defense communication centers during such overflights, as
well as changes in the operating modes of the US Army "Patriot" tracking radars
deployed in Jordan. This indicates the Israeli airbases as used as forward airfield or that
some of the coalition air force units are based there. Normally the IAF F-15I
fighter-bombers and A-4N strike aircraft operate from the Hatzerim airbase and the F-16
fighter-bombers operate from the Nevatim base.
Experts believe that these airbases may be used by the F-117 stealth bombers "officially"
based at the Al-Udaid airbase in Qatar. Using these two locations minimizes the risk to
the F-117s by allowing them to fly along the left bank of the Euphrates (in the direction
of Turkey) and to avoid the dangerous maneuvering over Iraq.
The destruction of the telephone stations in Baghdad did nothing to disrupt the
communications of the Iraqi army. The coalition command acknowledged this fact after
analyzing the dense [Iraqi] radio traffic. Because of that the USAF was ordered to employ
the most powerful available [conventional] munitions against predetermined strategic
targets. This attacks will be carried out immediately before renewing ground advance.
(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-29-03, translated by Venik)
http://www.aeronautics.ru/news/news002/iraqwar_ru_015.htm
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