Battered Hamas turns to PA, Egypt in bid to renew truce

By Amos Harel

Over the last few days, Hamas
leaders have sent messages to
both the Palestinian Authority
and Egypt in an effort to
revive the cease-fire. The
answers they have received
sound almost like Israel's
demands: First they must agree
to disarm, and then it will be
time to talk about a
cease-fire.


IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon, who toured
Gaza yesterday, is relatively optimistic about
recent developments in the territories. He
believes that the steps Israel is taking,
including its assassination campaign against
Hamas, and Hamas mistakes have combined to put
the Palestinians into a humiliating situation.

Each of the three centers of power in the
territories - PA Chairman Yasser Arafat, Prime
Minister Mahmoud Abbas and the Hamas leadership
- is now fighting for political survival (and,
in the case of Hamas leaders, for physical
survival as well).

Journalists have been having trouble finding
senior Hamas officials over the last few days.
Abdel Aziz Rantisi and his colleagues are not
only reluctant to come to television studios in
Gaza, they are even cutting down sharply on
their use of the telephone. But beyond the real
fear for their lives that Hamas members at
every level are feeling (a fear that Israel is
encouraging through repeated declarations by
Ya'alon and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz about
their intention to continue the assassination
policy), the organization is facing a serious
dilemma. The problem with the Jerusalem attack,
from Hamas's viewpoint, is that it was too
successful. The large number of people killed,
and the large number of children among them,
aroused American and European anger at the
organization (Europe is even considering
declaring its "political" wing a terrorist
organization) and provided a rare moment of
international legitimacy for Israel's forceful
response. The question is, what will happen if
Hamas's retaliation is similarly "successful" -
and if, once again, the gain proves to be not
worth the cost?

Therefore, it seems, Hamas is still hesitating
to carry out another attack inside the Green
Line. Instead, it is focusing on less
"problematic" targets - soldiers and settlers
in the territories. The IDF believes that Hamas
has not yet figured out how to escape from this
trap, since it knows that a mass-casualty
attack, even in the territories, would supply
Israel with an excuse for a major ground
operation in the Gaza Strip, as well as
enabling it to further escalate its
assassination campaign. This does not mean that
Hamas will refrain from attacks, but it will
have to think twice - especially since Israel
has recently proven its willingness to "act
like a lunatic" when it considers itself
justified.

Arafat is facing a no less crucial dilemma: He
has reached the point where he has to consider
giving up a major asset - control over most PA
security services - in light of the tremendous
pressure from America. The messages Arafat has
recently received from the Egyptians have
expressed real fear for his life. The "gun"
that Abbas is holding, his threat to resign, is
pointed more at Arafat than at himself. Without
Abbas, it is not clear that Arafat's insurance
policy remains valid.

But Abbas also has his own dilemma: Even if he
succeeds in besting Arafat, has the time come
for a frontal collision with Hamas? The IDF
continues to insist that is feasible, and that
Hamas would collapse under a direct assault
from the PA.