This morning heralded the beginning of the Labour Party conference in Bournemouth and the 10th conference with Tony Blair as leader of the party. Tomorrow, in a carefully stage managed performance, Blair will deliver his keynote speech to Labour delegates from across the country; outlining what many think will be the electoral pitch for Labour’s third term as the election bandwagon once again warms up for the coming battle. The Blair we will all see tomorrow is no longer the triumphant Blair of 1994 - toast of the party and soaring upwards in approval ratings – he is more likely to be met by a party who are unsympathetic to the causes that he is now pursuing; namely those of the continuing war in Iraq, tuition fees and the program of NHS and public service reform.

So, where did it all go wrong? Or has it really gone wrong? The current disillusionment of Labour party members and the electorate alike is more likely a product of success and over confidence on the part of the Downing Street ‘machine’ than a sustainable disapproval by the public as a whole. Despite Blair’s personal approval ratings plummeting, recent polling data still suggests that Labour would be elected today with a majority of around 120.

The recent dip in trust for the Prime Minister is the inevitable cumulative effect of a year in which he has been “battered” by public reaction to the war on Iraq and the consequent fallout along with a number of contentious issues suddenly appearing on the Order Paper of the House of Commons such as the controversial reform of university tuition fees and the establishment of foundation hospitals. These issues are hard sell and the Blair the nation will get tomorrow will have to do a lot more work to convince us than the sleek new leader that we witnessed walking to the podium in 1994.

All 6000 words of Tomorrow’s speech will be poured over by political aficionados in an effort to identify the character of Labour’s election campaign. The construction of the piece will be almost as important – if not more so – than Blair’s delivery of it. Over the past week, the PM has been locked in his study at Chequers re-drafting the speech by hand before faxing it back to his team of advisors in London. The team on the other end of the line demonstrate the changing face of the New Labour project. Out is Peter Mandelson and Alistair Campbell and instead we are presented with a very different team.

One of the key players is Peter Hyman. At only 34 years old, Hyman already has nearly 10 years of experience at Blair’s side and will be sure to be a major player in the construction of the speech. Hyman’s ability for jokes, however, is likely to go under utilised as Blair opts more for Mea Culpa than witty one liners. However, Hyman’s political astuteness is likely to aid Blair on keeping “on message” and delivering the sound bites that have become the de rigeur of New Labour’s relationship with the Downing Street pres corps.

A fresh face to the team and possibly the most telling of a complete ideological shift is Matthew Taylor, former head of the IPPR think tank and a critic of Blair’s recent policies in a recent document penned by a number of influential left wing think tanks including the IPPR. The new view of a relative “outsider” from the old left may mean that the call by many for a more radical swing of the party back to the left wing may be heeded. Nevertheless, Taylor is the man with his finger on the political pulse and his influence not only on Blair’s speech but also on the running of Downing Street as a whole may create a more reflective institution that can look at itself as fallible; not the over confident system of government that had become commonplace in recent years.
Away from the speech and looking forward to the election campaign, Blair’s choices also shed light on this new “New Labour”. With Scottish MP Douglas Alexander appointed as head of the PM’s committee for re-election, Blair has filled the position with that rarest of political animals: a Blairite who is also a close friend of Gordon Brown (Alexander was Brown’s researcher, opposite Anji Hunter at the time when Blair and Brown were sharing an office and the Chancellor is allegedly responsible for not only Douglas Alexander’s rise in the Labour Party but also that of his sister, Wendy, a former senior minister in the Scottish Parliament.) What could this signal for the future? Is it Blair’s way of looking to a time when he can step down in favour of Gordon Brown or is it merely a gesture for the media? Whatever the reason, Alexander is another young star of the Labour government and is, undoubtedly, future leadership material. As the ideas flow from Bournemouth during this week, Alexander will no doubt be there formulating the message of Labour’s next manifesto and the target of the forthcoming campaign.

Ten years on and Blair is on shaky ground; his leadership is at threat from his party and, consequently, his party is at threat from the country. When he steps out onto the platform in under 24 hours time he will need to deliver a speech that not only looks to the future but also contains an admission of his failings. Ultimately, no matter how stage managed the performance, no matter how well crafted the speech, the public must be able to look at him and believe that he can be trusted; that the culture of spin is over and year ten of the Blair leadership can herald a new beginning for the Labour Party and for the country.

MJ