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Oil: "There is no more supply"

Tom G | 06.08.2004 09:55 | Anti-militarism | Globalisation | Repression

Industrial civilisation is dependent on oil. It is a key fuel – it powers cars and the planes and ships that transport our food to our plates in this age of globalised food supply. Oil is also essential for plastics – used in such a wide variety of products it is hard to imagine. The thing is, oil is running out. Now.

It’s a strange situation. Everybody knows that oil is a non-renewable resource. Presumably, anyone with a basic grasp of the English language understands what this means. But suggest that oil will run out any time soon and you get a blank stare – ‘conspiracy theorist’ they think. Even, or especially, investors on the oil markets are unable to accept this simple possibility – the least deluded foresee rising prices as a result of increased demand, but do not envisage a fall in supply. That’s some one else’s problem, far beyond the short-term horizon of stock market investment.

Jason Schenker, an economist who tracks the energy sector for Wachovia Securities states "We've been in an upward trend for several years, and I REALLY DON'T SEE ANY INDICATION OF A REVERSAL OF THAT TREND" (my emphasis; 1). Opec is producing very near capacity; president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said this week that "there is no more supply" (2). The BBC helpfully listed seven causes of the record-high oil prices – copiously overlooking scarce supply (3).

So how soon will oil production peak? Predictions for peak production range from 2000 – 2037. The figure of 2037 however comes from the US Department of Energy who admit basing their estimate of supply *on* projected demand (4). In all probability, production has already peaked, which means it will become cripplingly expensive within the next 30 years, if not a decade. Food prices and unemployment will rocket (4). The neoliberals may finally get their Hobbsean war of ‘all against all’ that prompted Margret Thatcher to declare society non-existent.

The problem is, oil depletion seems the only way short of global revolution that we can avert climate change. So as George Monbiot puts it:

“We seem, in other words, to be in trouble. Either we lay hands on every available source of fossil fuel, in which case we fry the planet and civilisation collapses, or we run out, and civilisation collapses” (4)

This is the context in which we have to see the forthcoming Civil Contingencies Bill, which legislates for the banning of all protest and the suspension of parliament in any ‘state of emergency’. This is the context in which we have to see the Antisocial Behaviour Act, banning public assembly full stop on the whims of police officers and the new legislation purportedly to tackle animal liberation militants which bans all protest in residential areas. This is the context in which we have to see the plans for compulsory national biometric ID cards and a population database. The government is legislating for the fascist powers it will need to survive the social backlash when people realise they have led us down a dead end.

The question is, what are we going to do about it? When the Argentinean economy collapsed due to the policies of the IMF and World Bank and corrupt government, the people were able to rise, defying a ban on demonstrations to march in their millions shouting ‘que se vayan todos! (all of them [politicians] out!). Government after government fell, and the revolution has established an embryonic free society within the still breathing shell of the state. If we can achieve anything similar in our nuclear-armed state when affordable oil runs out we may just avert the openly fascistic system the government is legislating ‘for our own good’.


References

1.  http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/05/markets/oil_fifty/index.htm?cnn=yes
2.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3534284.stm
3.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3708951.stm
4.  http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2003/12/02/the-bottom-of-the-barrel/




Tom G

Comments

Hide the following 3 comments

EXACTLY!

06.08.2004 13:07

Exactly - you've spelt out the problem correctly and concisely.

For those of us who vote, shouldn't we vote for the Green Party - the only party that focuses on this issue and puts forward positive suggestions for urgent change?

John


I have a feeling . . .

06.08.2004 14:04

... any aversion of the climate change/peak oil crisis will be strictly extraparliamentary. No matter how well intentioned the greens are, they're part of a system designed to prevent the neccessary radical, even revolutionary, changes that are needed and protect plutocracy.

Looking at the civil contingencies bill, if the greens won a general election as a result of the gravity of climate change/peak oil dawning, there would simply be a suspension of parliament/de facto dictatorship to 'restore order' and 'protect democracy' - failing that a US invasion after talk that the green party fixed the election.

We're gonna have to save our selves I'm afraid. No one else will do it for us.

Revolt


useful source for info...

06.08.2004 15:50

...for anyone interested in tracking 'peak oil' & related stories as they emerge is  http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php

sally

sally woods


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