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Invading Iran: not if but when?

yozzee | 16.09.2004 22:13 | Analysis | Anti-militarism | Globalisation

PNAC is the right wing thinktank that has driven Bush's foreign policy. In a recent document from the PNAC site William Kristol outlined their thinking and their plans for Iran.




Recently we've all been reading more and more about Iran in the news. Now there's some serious accusations being made by senior US government officials. If you believe the inevitable manipulation of the press then Iran is now building a nuclear arsenal to use against us. So what's driving this concerted attack on Iran and why?



PNAC - The Project for The New American Century ( http://www.newamericancentury.org)

PNAC is the right wing thinktank that has driven Bush's foreign policy. In a recent document from the PNAC site William Kristol outlined their thinking and their plans for Iran:

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: WILLIAM KRISTOL

SUBJECT: CFR Report on Iran

One has to hand it to the Council on Foreign Relations. Just as Iran has spent the last several months reconfirming why it was a charter member of the "axis of evil," a CFR taskforce, led by former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and former DCI Robert Gates, has concluded that the time is now ripe for a policy of "engagement" with Iran. This, in spite of the fact that:

* Iran continues to tell the International Atomic Energy Agency - along with the British, Germans and French - to stuff it when it comes to Tehran's nuclear weapons program.
* Iranian officials, caught red-handed in New York photographing likely terrorist-targets, were expelled from the United States.
* Iranian intelligence agents were caught in Iraq building car bombs and are now assisting Iraqi radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's efforts to rebuild his militia.
* Iran's hard-line clerics and revolutionary guards have eliminated virtually all remaining reformist elements from the government over the past year.
* Iran apparently has had and continues to have a working relationship with bin Laden's al Qaeda. Indeed, if the 9-11 commission report is accurate, Tehran might well have been involved in both the 1996 Khobar Towers attack and in 9-11. Furthermore, Iran today harbors senior al-Qaeda leaders.
* And, today, the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz reports that the head of Israeli military intelligence research has warned the Knesset defense committee that Iran might well give non-conventional weapons, such as chemical weapons, to Hizballah, the Iranian-backed terrorist organization.

We do need a coherent, serious policy toward Iran; one of containment, pressure, accountability and, ultimately, [b]regime change[/b]. If the CFR report helps force a real debate on Iran policy and encourages the Bush Administration not simply to kick the can down the road until after election day, it will have (inadvertently) performed a service.

( http://www.newamericancentury.org/iran-20040720.htm)



Creating the bogeyman - US undermines international opinion on Iran's nuclear capability.

In a reuters report today:

"A senior U.S. official says satellite photographs of a suspected nuclear industrial site in Iran demonstrated its intention to develop atomic weapons, an allegation Tehran has dismissed as "a new lie".

A prominent international expert said on Wednesday that new satellite images showed the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran may be a site for research, testing and production of nuclear weapons. Iran denies having an atomic bomb programme.

"This clearly shows the intention to develop weapons," a senior U.S. official told Reuters on condition of anonymity on Thursday.

He also accused the U.N. nuclear watchdog of suppressing information on Parchin in its latest report on Iran -- a charge denied by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)."

( http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=584931&section=news)



The goal - Iranian oil and gas reserves.

Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer and holds 10% of the world's proven oil reserves.

"According to the Oil and Gas Journal (1/1/04), Iran holds 125.8 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, roughly 10% of the world's total, up from 90 billion barrels in 2003 (note: in July 2004, Iran's oil minister stated that the country's proven oil reserves had increased again, to 132 billion barrels, following new discoveries in the Kushk and Hosseineih fields in Khuzestan province). The vast majority of Iran's crude oil reserves are located in giant onshore fields in the southwestern Khuzestan region near the Iraqi border and the Persian Gulf. Iran has 32 producing oil fields, of which 25 are onshore and 7 offshore. Major onshore fields include the following: Ahwaz-Asmari (700,000 bbl/d); Bangestan (around 245,000 bbl/d current production, with plans to increase to 550,000 bbl/d), Marun (520,000 bbl/d), Gachsaran (560,000 bbl/d), Agha Jari (200,000 bbl/d), Karanj-Parsi (200,000 bbl/d); Rag-e-Safid (180,000 bbl/d); Bibi Hakimeh (130,000 bbl/d), and Pazanan (70,000 bbl/d). Major offshore fields include: Dorood (130,000 bbl/d); Salman (130,000 bbl/d); Abuzar (125,000 bbl/d); Sirri A&E (95,000 bbl/d); and Soroush/Nowruz (60,000 bbl/d). Iran's crude oil is generally medium in sulfur, with gravities mainly in the 28°-35° API range."

( http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/iran.html)



Recently Bush recalled US troops from western Europe citing the end of the cold war as the reason (again in line with PNAC policy). At present they are being retrained in the US for use in the Middle East. By January of 2005 the US claims that Iraq will have a 'democratically elected' government. This will include an Iraqi police and military overseen by the US military. The US will also have well over twenty permanent military bases in Iraq along with the capability to move huge amounts of troops and weaponry into Iraq at short notice. Of course the vast majority of Iran's crude oil reserves are located in giant onshore fields in the southwestern Khuzestan region near the Iraqi border and the Persian Gulf.

With the US thirst for oil to prop up the American lifestyle it's only a matter of time before the US invades Iran using yet another lie about weapons of mass destruction. They've done it once aided and abetted by Blair and his cronies. They'll do it again now. It's not if but when.

yozzee

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