Strictly enforced aircraft maintenance regimes have made air travel one of the safest forms of mass transport. The industry's impressive record is as follows. According to a Gallup Poll published a couple of years ago, one in six airline passengers is impressionable and fearful of flying. Rather like the fevered subject of an essay by 19th century British historian and statesman Lord Macaulay: “His imagination,” wrote the peer, “resembled the wings of an ostrich. It enabled him to run, though not to soar.”

But like it or not, clammy-palmed and drymouthed, ostrich imagination creating doom-laden scenarios based on the safety of the aircraft, frequent flyers must soar in search of business. No use telling over 16% of travellers that flying has never been more reliable, and is 21 times safer than driving to the airport.

The statistics bear this out, although there will always be aberrations. In its end-of-year bulletin for 2005, Heathrow-based consultancy and claims management specialist Airclaims admitted the past 12 months had been disappointing, with 19 fatal accidents worldwide. Even so, the report concluded, it was the fourth-safest year since 1946, while 2004 was the most accident-free period ever, the 347 fatalities 60% lower than the average in the 1990s, when passenger numbers were far less.

In the longer term, between 1995 and 2004, UK airlines, for example, carried 926 million passengers, during which time there were four accidents with a total loss of 20 lives. Which translates to one fatality for every 46 million passengers carried. As Britain's Civil Aviation Authority laconically remarks “This can be compared with the one in 19 million chance of being struck and killed by lightning.”

Similarly, US airlines claim an extraordinary safety record. In 2004, there was one fatal accident in over 10 million scheduled departures, and between 2002 and 2004, American carriers flew 1.9 billion passengers and recorded just 34 fatalities. European airlines also fare well in terms of high standards, and in Asia-Pacific, Qantas has a zero accident record, closely followed by All Nippon Airways, Air New Zealand and Cathay Pacific Airways.

In Latin America, Mexicana is considered one of the safest airlines, as is South African Airways on the African continent, while low-cost carriers worldwide spend a large proportion of the money saved on frills in keeping their young fleets in tip-top condition.

Nevertheless, the spate of accidents in August and September last year has put aviation safety firmly back on the agenda and led the media into shock-horror speculation about air safety. Paul Hayes, director of air safety at Airclaims, says some politicians, particularly in Europe, also seem to have reacted in knee-jerk fashion and appear to feel the need to do something about safety.

“There is talk of banning ‘dangerous airlines’ from European airspace …and compiling blacklists,” he adds. “Thus far, there seems to have been little thought as to what constitutes a ‘dangerous airline’ as opposed to just an ‘unlucky’ one. Despite the furore, the fact that a number of accidents happened within a relatively short period of time, by itself, can tell us nothing about air safety. It is generally assumed that the distribution of accidents over time is random. Human nature being what it is, we see significance where there is none.Although some individual years may be better or worse than others, safety continues to improve, whether measured by numbers of accidents or accident rates."

The crux of the argument is aircraft maintenance, although the chances of a mishap due to mechanical problems is statistically low as ever-improving technology combines with strict servicing practices in the hangar. Rather, the cause of an accident is more likely to be human error, and again the airlines are taking every precaution in the air and on the ground. Typically, British Airways spent US$1.5 billion on maintaining its fleet of 292 aircraft, with an
average age of nine years, in 2005.

In addition, aircraft manufacturers are studying technologies to enhance the flight crew's situational awareness. These include displays that give a picture of the descent profile and surrounding terrain, and another which monitors all ground traffic as the aircraft taxis to the gate. The plane men are also working on diagnostic systems that predict developing problems and give early warning of possible component failures – a highly sophisticated version of the displays found on car dashboards.

All of which should reassure the most nervous of passengers as they fasten their seat belts. If more proof of safety in the air is needed, they might consider that in 1996 commercial airlines had a fatal accident rate of 0.026 for every 100,000 flying hours. Translated simply – and bearing in mind the improving picture over the past decade – this means statistically a passenger would have to fly 24 hours a day for 400 years before being involved in an accident.

Nuts and bolts of maintenance

A typical service schedule includes:

Maintenance personnel conduct a visual inspection before every flight, checking for dents,damage or cracks to the fuselage, oil or fuel leaks
Every three to five days, the aircraft's controls are checked, plus the landing gear, brakes and the oxygen system
At eight-month intervals, the internal control system, emergency equipment and hydraulic are carefully checked
Every 12 to 18 months, the maintenance crew carry out more detailed checks, using hi-tech equipment to probe for wear and tear, corrosion and cracks not visible to the naked eye