Around two hundred scientists, economists, energy pundits and acedemics attended the event organised by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) seeking an answer what are we going to do as we leave the era of cheap liquid fuels and enter the post peak world.

Richard Heinberg, author of the "Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies" and "Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World" was on hand to promote his new book, or more importantly, to promote what he hopes is a plan for a sensible energy future.

The transition to a future of reduced oil supply will require the development of clean, reliable, and renewable energy sources and reduced oil production and consumption. Proponents of the Oil Depletion Protocol say that it can help us us to accomplish both.

Modern industrialised society if almost completely dependent on oil. The last centuary has seen us utilise oil for everything from transportation, agiculture, medicine and plastics. Moving into an the post peak era will inevitably mean major changes, the only question is to what degree we can prepare and mitigate against those changes being forced apone us.

The oil depletion protocol is an attempt to provide a strategy for handling the shift in a controlled and cooperative way. Armed with the knowledge that current and projected demands of oil simply can not be met, the protocol calls for a manages reduction in demand in order that it can happen in a predicatable and managed way rather that a volitile free for all.

The general idea is one of quotas that result is reductions that match or exceed the expected global depletion rates. Adopting such a plan would mean a fairer distribution of the falling supplies rather that a competative scramble for the dregs.

The protocol was originally put forward in 2002 by Dr. Colin Campbell, a prominent petroleum geologist and founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). The aim is to obtain agreement from countries to reduce oil imports and exports by a specified amount each year, about 2.6 percent. By doing so signatory nations will help mitigate the negative consequences of an over-reliance on cheap oil and help prepare for a global decline in the world’s oil supply.

Simply put, oil importing nations would reduce their imports by an agreed-upon yearly percentage, referred to as the World Oil Depletion Rate, while oil producing nations would cut their production by their National Depletion Rate - in effect it's a global rationing system.

According to those backing the idea, if the entire world adopted the Protocol, global consumption of oil would decline by almost 3 percent per year, stabilize prices and reduce competition for remaining supplies.

Personally I find it highly unlikely that the more powerful nations would choose to sign up for such an agreement rather than attempt to utilise economic or military force in order to secure their own self interest.


 http://oildepletionprotocol.org/

(As drafted by Dr. Colin J. Campbell)*

WHEREAS the passage of history has recorded an increasing pace of change, such that the demand for energy has grown rapidly in parallel with the world population over the past two hundred years since the Industrial Revolution;

WHEREAS the energy supply required by the population has come mainly from coal and petroleum, such resources having been formed but rarely in the geological past and being inevitably subject to depletion;

WHEREAS oil provides ninety percent of transport fuel, is essential to trade, and plays a critical role in the agriculture needed to feed the expanding population;

WHEREAS oil is unevenly distributed on the Planet for well-understood geological reasons, with much being concentrated in five countries bordering the Persian Gulf;

WHEREAS all the major productive provinces of the World have been identified with the help of advanced technology and growing geological knowledge, it being now evident that discovery reached a peak in the 1960s, despite technological progress and a diligent search;

WHEREAS the past peak of discovery inevitably leads to a corresponding peak in production during the first decade of the 21st Century, assuming no radical decline in demand;

WHEREAS the onset of the decline of this critical resource affects all aspects of modern life, such having grave political and geopolitical implications;

WHEREAS it is expedient to plan an orderly transition to the new World environment of reduced energy supply, making early provisions to avoid the waste of energy, stimulate the entry of substitute energies, and extend the life of the remaining oil;

WHEREAS it is desirable to meet the challenges so arising in a co-operative and equitable manner, such to address related climate change concerns, economic and financial stability, and the threats of conflicts for access to critical resources.

NOW IT IS PROPOSED THAT

A convention of nations shall be called to consider the issue with a view to agreeing an Accord with the following objectives:
• to avoid profiteering from shortage, such that oil prices may remain in reasonable relationship with production cost;
• to allow poor countries to afford their imports;
• to avoid destabilizing financial flows arising from excessive oil prices;
• to encourage consumers to avoid waste;
• to stimulate the development of alternative energies.

Such an Accord shall have the following outline provisions:
• The world and every nation shall aim to reduce oil consumption by at least the world depletion rate.
• No country shall produce oil at above its present depletion rate.
• No country shall import at above the world depletion rate.
• The depletion rate is defined as annual production as a percent of what is left (reserves plus yet-to-find).
• The preceding provisions refer to regular conventional oil—which category excludes heavy oils with cut-off of 17.5 API, deepwater oil with a cut-off of 500 meters, polar oil, gas liquids from gas fields, tar sands, oil shale, oil from coal, biofuels such as ethanol, etc.

Detailed provisions shall cover the definition of the several categories of oil, exemptions and qualifications, and the scientific procedures for the estimation of Depletion Rate.

The signatory countries shall cooperate in providing information on their reserves, allowing full technical audit, such that the Depletion Rate may be accurately determined.

The signatory countries shall have the right to appeal their assessed Depletion Rate in the event of changed circumstances.

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