Kenya, Strains within coalition govt continued to worsen. Early month crisis talks collapsed 4 Apr, with PM Odinga’s team accusing President Kibaki of unwillingness to engage on policy and concerns over marginalisation of PM’s ODM party. Kibaki late Apr installed ally VP Kalonzo Musyoka as chair of parliamentary business committee, prompting outcry from ODM and call for fresh elections; Kibaki accused ODM of “fomenting a coup”. Parliamentary speaker 28 Apr named himself interim chair to ease stand-off. 2 ministers of Kibaki’s PNU party resigned over month, citing lack of consultation over reforms. Domestic tensions rose over Lake Victoria’s disputed Migingo Islands though diplomatic relations with Kampala largely calm; protesters in Kibera in Nairobi uprooted railway line to Uganda 15 Apr; MPs called on govt to declare Uganda a “hostile state”. 29 villages in Karatina, Central Province, executed by members of outlawed Mungiki sect 20 Apr, in revenge for killing of 15 members by vigilante group. Sect leader Maina Njenga arrested for ordering executions 28 Apr.

Moldova, Following disputed Communist victory in 5 April parliamentary elections, at least 15,000 protested 6 Apr against alleged rigging; turned violent 7 Apr as protesters stormed presidency, parliament buildings. Authorities regained control next day. Several hundred police and protesters injured, several hundred detained. 3 protesters died, including 2 in police detention; European Parliament mission subsequently reported “acts of horrible violence” by police. President Voronin 7 Apr said Romania involved in initiating protests, expelled ambassador. OSCE gave initial positive election report, but subsequently reported falsification of voter lists. Constitutional Court 13 Apr ordered vote recount; Central Election Commission 22 Apr confirmed results: Communists won 60 out of 101 seats. EU Presidency 22 Apr called for inquiry involving opposition, international groups.

Nepal, Conflict between govt and Nepal Army (NA) escalated: NA Chief Gen. Katwal 21 Apr denied defying govt authority, escaped immediate sacking due to coalition disagreements, international pressure; but Maoist govt still determined to remove Katwal. NA strongly denied 26 Apr rumours of planned coup. NA 7 Apr pulled out of most events at National Games, protesting late decision to include Maoist Army. Parliament paralysed for 2 weeks until 15 Apr as opposition accused Maoists of failure to honour past agreements, arrest Maoist-linked criminals. Maoists won 3 out of 6 seats in 10 Apr by-elections. Shutdown across the Tarai by Tharu activists since 22 April.

North Korea, NK 5 Apr attempted experimental “satellite” launch in face of strong international condemnation, increased threats to speed up nuclear program. A divided UNSC failed to adopt resolution, but in 13 Apr statement unanimously condemned launch, citing contravention of resolution 1718, and ordering Sanctions Committee to enforce sanctions, arms embargo. Japan 10 Apr renewed unilateral economic sanctions against NK for another year. Pyongyang responded 14 Apr renouncing 6-Party Talks, threatening 2nd test unless UNSC retract criticism and on 15 Apr ordering IAEA and U.S. nuclear inspectors to leave. 25 Apr announced production of weapons-grade plutonium resumed. Govt 24 Apr announced plans to try U.S. journalists arrested mid-March at Chinese border.

Sri Lanka, Heavy LTTE-govt fighting continued in north east throughout month with disastrous consequences for trapped civilian population; strong risk of further deterioration as army’s final push on the LTTE continues. Govt 21 Apr assault on self-declared “no fire zone” triggered chaotic exodus of 100,000 civilians to govt-controlled territory. Conditions desperate for those who fled: relief agencies denied access to initial military screening centres, military unequipped to offer urgently-needed food, water, medical care; camps for displaced overwhelmed by new influx. At least 50,000 still trapped in war zone and at great risk as fighting continues. UN estimates some 6,500, including 1,000 children, killed since late Jan. Despite govt 27 Apr announcement that troops would no longer use airstrikes or heavy artillery, such attacks continued. Widespread international pressure on govt throughout month. 100,000s of Tamils worldwide demonstrated against govt offensive. Govt 27 Apr denied Sweden FM Carl Bildt entry on humanitarian mission, Sweden recalled ambassador in response.

Thailand, Political tensions rose after late-March protest by supporters of ousted PM Thaksin turned violent. After calling for resignation of king’s advisors and dissolution of parliament, protesters 11 Apr broke into ASEAN summit, forcing its cancellation. PM Abhisit declared state of emergency in Pattaya and next day Bangkok. Demonstrations turned into riots 13 Apr as street battles between soldiers and protesters ended with some 120 injured, 2 Bangkok residents shot dead during apparent clash with protestors. Protest leaders voluntarily ended rally 14 Apr, citing safety concerns; 3 surrendered to police, but promised more protests soon. People’s Alliance for Democracy leader Sondhi Limthongkul shot and injured 17 Apr. Abhisit lifted state of emergency 24 Apr, called for constitutional reforms. In South, suspected insurgents opened fire at train in Narathiwat 10 Apr, killing 1 crew; also blamed for 9 deaths 27 Apr, day before 5th anniversary of Krue Sae mosque incident. Early month border clash between Thai, Cambodian forces saw 2 Thai soldiers killed, 9 injured; both sides blamed other, downplayed incident.

Fiji, Overturning 2008 Supreme Court ruling, Court of Appeal 9 Apr ruled PM Frank Bainimarama’s military govt, appointed after Dec 2006 military coup, illegal, and said interim PM needed to dissolve parliament, call elections; but President Iloilo next day announced govt takeover, dismissed Appeal Court judges, appointed Bainimarama interim PM, to serve for 5 years before next elections.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya, Colombia, Côte d‚Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Togo, Turkey, Turkmenista n, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations
Armenia/Turkey: The month brought an important step forward in talks between Armenia and Turkey following an agreement brokered under Swiss mediation on a 'roadmap' towards the normalisation of relations and opening of their joint border. The agreement came despite strains related to Armenia's longstanding conflict with Turkey ally Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.


April 2009 outlook

Conflict Risk Alert
Sri Lanka

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Niger, after a joint peace declaration agreed between the government and main Tuareg rebel group raised prospects for an imminent peace deal to address the long-running conflict in the north.

International Crisis Group
 http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm