The struggle for independence of the Kanak people, indigenous people of New Caledonia, has a long and glorious history. A new stage of this struggle began in 1985 when “Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front”, led by the outstanding son of the Kanak people Jean-Marie Tjibaou, started its activity. FLNKS had advocated the establishment of an independent Kanak state. The events on the Ouvéa Island in 1988 became culmination of the struggle. FLNKS fighters had taken hostage 27 French gendarmes and judge and demanded immediate independence. The French colonial authorities sent a special commando unit. As a result of bloody clashes, the rebels were forced to let gendarmes off. Jean-Marie Tjibaou was assassinated. But the colonizers realized that they can not longer maintain their dominance in the previous form and made some concessions.

According to the Matignon (1988) and Nouméa (1998) Accord, New Caledonia was granted some minor attributes of independence (such as a local Caledonian citizenship, "national" flag, etc.) and some rights of autonomy. These agreements also set down that the people of New Caledonia will decide at the referendum whether it wants to remain under the authority of France. The holding of the referendum may not be earlier than 2014.

There are pro-independence parties and anti-independence parties at today's New Caledonia political arena. The largest pro-colonial party "Rally–UMP" (Le Rassemblement-UMP) is supported by part of the French-speaking community and zealously endorsed the policy of Nicolas Sarkozy. The largest anti-colonial parties are already mentioned FLNKS and multiethnic "Caledonian Union" (Union Calédonienne).

If we give a glance at the island's demography, we can grasp a lot in the political things. The indigenous people - Kanak, now accounts for 45% of the islanders. Descendants of French settlers account for 35%. Polynesians - immigrants from the Wallis and Futuna, Vanuatu, and Tahiti - 13%. Caledonians of French origin ("Caldoches") and Polynesians are worried that they'll lose their rights in mono-ethnic Kanak State in case of independence.

In fact, Caldoches form a specific ethnic group; they differ from modern French as the Afrikaners differ from the modern Dutch. Among Caldoches extends the understanding that New Caledonia is no longer able to remain a French colony. In this regard, significant part of the Caldoches and Polynesians is supporting a new party "Future Together", which stands for multi-ethnic New Caledonia. However, the limited character of the program of this party reveals in the point that while the party supports a broad autonomy, it does not want full independence.

The certain political conclusions follow from the analysis of actual ethnic composition. The success of the struggle for New Caledonia independence entirely depends on whether Kanak political forces would be able to advance a slogan of multi-ethnic society in which Kanak, Caldoches and Polynesians have equal rights in political, cultural and economic terms. It depends on whether these political forces would be able to rally the masses, offering them long-term and attractive program of progressive development. It depends also on whether Caldoches and Polynesians would be able to set aside their prejudices and fears.

The real political process has always a priority before any paper agreements. In the case of properly organizing agitation and propaganda, with correct slogans which mobilize the masses, in the case of the deployment of a broad people's democratic movement in New Caledonia - the long-awaited independence would be acquire much earlier the term that set by colonialists in Numea Accord.

We must not forget also, that the bitterest enemy of the peoples of Oceania - Australian imperialism, has its eye on the future independence of New Caledonia. But its plans of expanding its sphere of influence in the region must be decisively repulsed. Having achieved independence, New Caledonia which is rich in natural resources, would become a locomotive of progressive change in Oceania and motor of the new Pacific Islands Confederation.

Dmitry Kremnev.